Are we seeing more than the death of Windows RT?

Red, like the ink used on Windows RT in Microsoft's accounts.

Red, like the ink used on Windows RT in Microsoft’s accounts.

Mauricio Freitas asks Are we seeing the death of Windows RT? It’s a fair question.

Think about it for a moment and you’ll realise it begs an even bigger question: Can Microsoft breath life back into Windows?

This might seem crazy given the sheer number of Windows devices in circulation. Microsoft’s installed base is significant and can’t be underestimated, but Windows’ relevance appears to be eroding with each tick of the clock. And by extension, Office is growing less important too.

Today RT, tomorrow all Windows?

RT is a metaphor for everything that’s wrong with Microsoft. The problem goes back a decade, but really came to the fore when Apple launched its first iPhone in 2007.

Although Microsoft’s complacency before the iPhone wasn’t good, it was understandable.

At the time, the dollars were still rolling in. Google may have nibbled at Microsoft’s edges, but the core product lines, Windows, Office and server software, all enjoyed market dominance and that meant solid margins and profits.

When the iPhone dropped, everything changed. The revolution was obvious to everyone almost immediately. Everyone except Microsoft.

Within months it was clear computing had altered course, from 2007 on the PC’s fate was sealed. The future was mobile devices.

In 2010, Apple’s iPad consolidated the revolution.

No Microsoft answers

Microsoft had no answer to the iPhone in 2007. It took the company five years to get a credible alternative – Windows Phone 8 – out the door.

When the iPad arrived in April 2010, Microsoft had no answer. It took two and half years to get Windows RT to market, almost three years to get the Surface Pro on to the streets.

Three years is a long time in technology. Too long.

Microsoft assumed customers, especially business customers, would be prepared to wait while it developed a Windows tablet. Most didn’t wait. They chose iPads or even Android devices. Companies bought them by the container load, individuals gave their CIOs palpitations as the phrase BYOD entered the lexicon.

Microsoft’s July 2103 scorecard

On Friday Microsoft’s share price fell 10 percent as investors finally understood how bad things are. Here’s a quick stocktake:

  • PC sales plummeting. Ultrabooks not happening. Barely any interest in touch screen PCs.
  • Weak Windows Phone 8 sales, lack of interest from smartphone partners other than ailing Nokia.
  • Windows RT a basket case.
  • Slow Surface sales.
  • Little interest in third party Windows tablets.
  • Disappointing Windows 8 sales, humiliating partial u-turn with 8.1.
  • CEO widely regarded (rightly or wrongly) as out of touch with market reality.

None of this suggests Microsoft is doomed. Nor is Windows likely to die in the near future. It does suggest the company is no longer a market leader and its star is waning. It also suggests that Windows will decline in importance and the rivers of gold from operating systems and Office could slow to a trickle.

Or am I missing something here? What do you think?

 

2 thoughts on “Are we seeing more than the death of Windows RT?

  1. Unfortunately for them, what they tried to do is what I would call ‘impossible’. Desktop paradigm to tablet and touch-centric one? That’s like trying to make something in between a horse and a car… doesn’t happen. There is no middle ground that works.

    If they had gone full-on touch with a tablet W8 (that melded with WP8) and kept desktop W8 separate they wouldn’t have had problems. People would have praised both. Separately.

  2. Pingback: Windows Phone, Not Surface Tablets, Is Microsoft’s Perfect Avenue to Mobile | Market Pitch

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