It’s a cliché, but technology changes at a frightening rate. If you pay, or take responsibility for paying the bills, depressing might make a better word.

For example, the typical shelf life of a new personal computer is now just nine months. That is, its makers only expect to earn revenue from the machine for three quarters before a replacement comes along.

More worrying, some PC companies estimate that you’ll use one of their desktop machines for just 18 months before needing, not merely desiring, a replacement.

File servers and other larger computers tend to last a little longer. Manufacturers expect you to get two to three years front line use from such a machine before relegating it to a subsidiary role.

While software and operating systems change less often, the changes often need extra spending elsewhere as other software, hardware and support will probably all need updating.

Network technology may not change at quite the same rate, but your organisation’s communications needs certainly will.

Of course, you don’t have to allow the people who sell technology to dictate your replacement schedule.

However if you aren’t continually re-evaluating, upgrading and improving systems you could quickly fall behind competitors. It isn’t going to matter too much if you wait an extra year before following the herd to a new technical nirvana, but you will need to move on at some point.

In information technology, standing still is not an option—try buying a mainstream application for Windows XT to see what I mean. That operating system was superseded only a couple of years ago, yet Microsoft treats it like ancient history. So do certain other PC application suppliers.

While you don’t want to be a hostage to fortune, clearly your organisation’s IT plan must include an orderly renewal schedule. A good plan takes expected technical advances into account as well as the hardware, software and support costs of frequent upgrades and replacements.

This need not be as expensive or as difficult as you might initially fear. There cheaper ways of squeezing more performance from an existing technology investment than throwing everything out and starting again.

This is true if you can devise a forward-looking IT strategy putting systems and policies in place to take your organisation through the next few years without expensive discontinuities. This kind of planning is the core idea behind future proofing.

Or, more accurately, it is the core idea behind the usual meaning of future proofing.

Like many IT terms, the word can be hijacked and misused. Some advertisers use the word to imply a product or technology won’t be outdated for a long time. That’s a part of future proofing, but it’s not the whole story. Nor is it the most important aspect.

At the core of future proofing is the idea today’s decisions affect future decisions.

Most importantly, you shouldn’t commit to technical dead-ends. So, simply buying the best tools for today’s needs is not enough. You need to look over the horizon as well. There are two types of changes to consider, those inside your organisation and those outside.

A good organisational IT plan should closely align with the business plan. It needs to look forward to tomorrow’s needs. A growing organisation should put IT systems in place that can expand to meet future capacity and application requirements. An organisation expecting to get smaller might need to add IT capacity to compensate for workers or it might just need less IT.

Externally, you need to read the IT industry. Will company X continue to market, develop and support software Y?

Is the feature being heavily promoted by company A likely to become an ‘industry standard’ as promised or will it go the way of the Betamax video and EISA bus?

This can mean using an inferior technology because it is a standard. Standards tend to hang around longer than non- standards and new standards tend build on old ones. Of course there is the question of `which standard?’ but, on the whole, standards make a good starting point.

Similarly, there is safety in numbers. Products that sell well are more likely to survive than those that don’t. They are more likely to be developed, improved and updated. The companies making the products are more likely to be around to provide support. So picking industry winners can help.

On the down side, if you play safe and opt for obvious standards and industry winners, you’ll have systems that look a lot like everyone else’s. This might be comforting, but it’s no way to gain a strategic advantage over your rivals. Your system might be future proof, but your organisation might not be.

In some respects building a future proof system is like the way exporters buy currency options. Both processes reduce risk. You take a small hit now to cut the chance of a big hit later. In some cases those yet to happen big hits can be fatal.

You’ll need to do plenty of homework. Reading the technology press, keeping track of marketing material, paying for expensive analysts’ reports and attending seminars is part of this process.

As an IT journalist with some 30 years experience, I want to warn you companies don’t always tell the truth and other times they simply get it wrong.

Sorting good information from bad is hard enough for those who do it for a living. For people with other responsibilities it is almost impossible. Listen to what people say by all means, but don’t bet the business on a supplier’s promise.

At this point, you could be forgiven for thinking that future proofing sounds good, but belongs in the too hard basket.

Thankfully, there is a way around the problem. To find it, consider how company’s reduce currency risk. Few organisation’s actually handle their own currency risk management. Most contract specialists who agree to deliver a predetermined set of results.

There is no direct equivalent to currency hedging in the IT world. But organisations can move to IT arrangements where they buy predetermined deliverables and not specific tools and technologies.

For example, you might hire or lease equipment, not buy it outright. More specifically, an organisation could future proof payroll processing by hiring a service provider who delivers an agreed number of correctly processed pay transactions within a fixed time at an agreed cost. This approach explains the success of software-as-a-service vendors.

In an arrangement of this nature, the customer doesn’t need to know or care about the technology used or how the payroll is processed, merely that the job is done.

Contract clauses can account for any efficiencies gained by technical advances during of the contract, or they could be put aside until contract renewal. Competitive tendering means service providers can bid on a combination of service quality and cost.

Finally, future proofing is about managing risk, not necessarily eliminating it. It’s important to develop a realistic awareness of your organisation’s IT risks and the impact these risks have on your organisation’s main business. Learn where you can take a punt and where you can’t. If you start to think about your IT in terms of risk, you’re part way to building a future proof organisation.

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Writing in APC (Australian Personal Computer) David Flynn asks Will 2010 be ‘The Year of the e-Book’?. His report is based on material from tech analyst firm Gartner which says ebooks will boom next year so long as they; “overcome hurdles in price, availability and lack of popular mainstream content”.

All these points are valid, but for ebooks to begin displacing printed books, there also needs to be a great leap forward in display technology. The current crop of electronic books are tiring to read when compared with print.

Higher resolution, large format, non-flickering, non-backlit displays are available, but not in the quantities required and not, yet, at a realistic price. After years of looking at other forms of electronic books, I’d say once ebook makers overcome this hurdle, they’ll be mainstream.

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Barnes and Noble’s says internal sales data shows the Nook e-reader is already a hit. The company says the device is now its fastest selling item. Not bad considering the Nook doesn’t officially go on sale until November 30.

While the Nook, like Amazon’s Kindle, pushes e-book technology further into the mainstream, neither is yet the killer product able to do for books what Apple’s iPod did for music. Mind you, Apple has a tablet waiting in the wings which could be the breakthrough reader.

For my money, ebook readers still need to be kinder on the eyes. All the technology is now in place except good, readable, high resolution screens that don’t tire the eyes. Early adoptors won’t care about this, but most book lovers won’t switch to digital until the experience is as good as reading old fashioned ink squirted onto mashed-up trees.

Meanwhile, Creative Technologies has entered the ebook market.

(Acknowledgement to Mark Fletcher at Australian Newsagency Blog who had both stories earlier today).

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Canadian public relations practitioner Dave Fleet believes the Twitter microblogging service has moved through the Gartner Hype Cycle to the point where it will now quickly become unfashionable. In his  Five Potential Effects Of Twitter’s Shift To The Trough Of Disillusionment Fleet charts the technology’s progress and makes some predictions about what will happen next.

Fleet’s analysis is on the money. But there’s something else going on with Twitter. After a period of stability, the service appears to be changing. Earlier this week the company altered the way users propagate messages – a process known as retweeting.

In other words, Twitter is still evolving. It will probably be a different beast by the time it resumes its progress through the later stages of the Garter Hype Cycle. Or maybe it will be replaced by something else.

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People spend less time reading online news than reading printed newspapers is because online reading can be more mentally and physically taxing.

I’ve no hard and fast evidence to offer. This is just my observation. It would make a great research project for someone.

People certainly do read less online than in print. I discovered this today in a different context at Newspapers online – the real dilemma.

Here, Australian online media expert Ben Shepherd was examining why online newspapers earn proportionately less money than print newspapers. He says it comes down to engagement. A typical online consumer of Rupert Murdoch’s products spends just 12.6 minutes a month reading News Corporation web sites. In comparison the average newspaper reader spends 2.8 hours a week with their printed copy.

There are other factors. But I’d argue, the technology behind online reading is part of the problem:

• Newspapers and magazines are typically printed at about 600 dots per inch.
• Computer screens typically display text and pictures at 72 pixels per inch. Some display at 96 dots per inch.
• The contrast is usually far better on paper than on screen.
• Screens often include distracting elements. This can be particularly bad where online news sites have video or audio advertising on the same page as news stories.

Lower resolution means it takes more effort for a human brain to convert text into meaningful information. The bottom line is that screens are fine for relatively small amounts of text, but over the long haul your eyes and your brain will get tired faster. You’ll find it harder to concentrate and your comprehension will suffer.

I’m a reader who can stay up all night with a decent novel, but I found it hard to stick with most eBook readers for more than ten minutes.

It’s also worth noting here that many sub-editors and proof readers will find more errors on a printed page than on a screen.

What does this mean?

• The online reading revolution is going ahead without anyone worrying about readability, but it’ll be better when improved screen technology arrives.
• In the back of my mind I suspect this is one reason why the 140 word Twitter is so successful. Again, I’ll leave the research project to someone else.

I write a daily column about technology journalism in Australia and New Zealand for IT Journo (it’s an invitation only site). Today the dominant news story was the Australian debut of new Google Android phones from HTC. Also on the agenda was an announcement from Google about its new Wave communications software and the relaunch or rebranding of Microsoft’s search as Bing.

Judging by the local and international coverage of the stories, Microsoft should be worried. The yet to be launched Google Wave software recieved far more coverage than Microsoft’s carefully choreographed launch. Microsoft is preparing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars promoting its rebranded search and yet the story was lost in the noise.

As far as news media is concerned, Google is now far more important than Microsoft.

Despite the global financial crisis, Australia and New Zealand still face a shortage of many key information technology skills. And many experts believe that shortage will be even more acute three or four years from now when today’s school students finish tertiary education. So if you’re looking for a solid career with long term prospects, it could be right for you.

Here are ten ways to improve your IT career prospects:

1. Choose your undergraduate course carefully. In particular, look for university departments that have close industry links and a culture or track record of high graduate employment levels. These factors are more import than an institution’s wider reputation. University admissions departments often have this kind of information. If they are unwilling to answer questions on these subjects that may be because they perform poorly in these areas.
2. If you are still at school, choose courses that align with the entry requirements of the best undergraduate departments. Make sure you do plenty of relevant groundwork before University; this will help your grades later. Don’t neglect English or Commerce – both are highly valued by technology employers.
3. Hone your communications skills. If possible take school or undergraduate courses in writing and verbal communications. Take out-of-school opportunities to improve public speaking and similar skills. Many junior IT jobs require you to work on help desks and in similar places where you are dealing with customers (who may be inside or outside of the organisation you work for).
4. Learn to look professional. Develop an appropriate dress style. Know how to put on a tie and polish shoes. This doesn’t necessarily mean dark blue business suits. It does mean being presentable.
5. Start thinking like a professional. Make a habit of being punctual and well mannered. Take a pride in every thing you do. Employers say this is where most otherwise good candidates miss out. But none of this means you have to become old before your time.
6. Maintain an interest in IT that goes beyond narrow specialty skills. Read trade publications and web sites. This will give you something to talk about at interviews and an early warning of employment trends.
7. Once you are in the work force, keep your skills up-to-date. If your employer offers any training or refresher options take as many as you can manage. If necessary learn new skills in your own time.
8. Think marketing. You need to sell yourself and sell your skills. Make sure your CV or resume puts you in the best possible light. But don’t overdo it.
9. Network extensively with colleagues, friends in associated industries and keep in touch with employment consultants – not all job vacancies are formally advertised. Use social networking tools. Find ways to network that suit your personality without looking creepy or pushy.
10. If you have the option, consider finishing your degree and starting your career in the US or UK. Employers in those countries are more likely to employ fresh graduates and you’ll have no trouble finding work when you return to the antipodes.

Here are five Australian and New Zealand loosely tech-related websites which are relatively unknown, but deserve far greater recognition.

Australian Newsagency Blog

Mark Fletcher runs a handful of Melbourne newsagents and gift shops along with a company developing newsagency software. He has some great ideas about the industry and often acts as an advocate or even agent provocateur. The blog is extremely busy with at least four posts on most days. My only real criticism of Fletcher’s views is that he is too optimistic (or possibly pessimistic depending on your point of view) about the speed at which technology will eclipse traditional paper-based media.

JargonMaster

Sydney-based Simon Sharwood runs a fairly low traffic site, posts come along every week or two. He is a working freelance journalist with tons of experience, mainly writing about technology and some time in the public relations business. Australian journalists are extremely forthright and Simon is no exception. I agree with most of what he has to say, including his ‘rants’. If you work in technology or marketing you can learn a lot from this site.

Lance Wiggs

Lance Wiggs is a Kiwi, but he spends some of his time in Australia. He works as a management consultant, in many cases to technology firms in Australia and New Zealand. Like Fletcher and Sharwood, Wiggs is more than happy to call a spade a spade, which means he often delivers profound insights into some tech and online business issues. I’m not always in full agreement with Wiggs although he is never off target.

Mark Neely’s Blog – 3rd Horizon

Australian Mark Neely doesn’t post often. In fact, the most recent post at present is three months old (if you read it you’ll understand why there’s not been much else). He rarely posts more than one item a month at the best of times. But the material on his site is first class, more like features than off-the-top-of-my-head snippets. Neely writes well and has a unique insight into technology issues.

BRB: Brett Roberts’ Blog

Brett Roberts works for Microsoft, but unlike some people in that company, doesn’t appear to have been through the remove-part-of-the-frontal-lobe-and-replace-it-with-a-low-powered-chip operation that stops rational, objective thought. These days you’d be hard pressed to find any of those automatons at Microsoft New Zealand. Apart from being useful and letting us know what smart people inside the company are thinking, Roberts occasionally veers off piste into other interesting technological areas.