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IDC vice-president Hugh Ujhazy says 5G is going to be huge for the mobile carriers 

 He says: “We’ve done a telco capex [capital expenditure] forecast for the Asia-Pacific region excluding China and Japan. The fastest growing single capex item is the build out of 5G radio access networks. It’s going to grow at 93 percent compound annual growth rate [CAGR]  over the next five years. That’s in a context of a decline of about 1.6 percent CAGR decline in in their total capex. So, it’s obviously going to be big for operators.” 

For Ujhazy, 5G remains mainly an enterprise play, but there is also a consumer play in the mix. He says carriers need 5G technology because it simplifies and streamlines their job of provisioning and managing a cellular customer. They also need it so they can keep offering the increase in performance and capacity that we’ve all come to expect. 

Ujhazy has changed his view of network slicing in the last year. “I didn’t believe in the private networks that are possible with 5G. Vodafone Global changed my mind. They said they have about 160 different requirements – that’s expressions of customer interest – already on the table. So there will be a place for it. I’m not sure how that will make sense over time. But it is coming.” 

No overnight change

Another aspect of 5G is that it won’t be an overnight revolution. He says: “It is going to be with us for the next 20 years. There’s no need to run up to the buffet to grab a quick bite, it will be here for a while.  

“Everything about the landscape for 5G is a co-existence strategy with 4G. And that 4G network isn’t going anywhere probably for the next two decades. When we look at things like broad widescale coverage over long distances, a lot of that is best left to 4G.”  

 The big change will come with stand-alone 5G. Once the millimetre spectrum is available, that will be where customers get to see the promised high speeds. He says: “It is only going to be there in pockets where it is needed. You’ll see a blended environment in terms of the Gs for some time.”  

This mixed environment goes for all the Gs: 3, 4 and 5G. Ujhazy says each of them does something interesting. “The 3G is used today for M2M [machine to machine], for cellular connected devices that will probably move to narrowband. Some markets are retiring their 3G, but the message here is all about the overall portfolio of connectivity options you now have as a user. 

“It’s the same for enterprise customers and consumers. You have everything from fibre to Wi-Fi 6 to 4G and 5G. We’ve got more choices than ever before and building the right strategy for that is the challenge we face.”  

Sydney-based Hugh Ujhazy is vice president, IoT and telecommunications for IDC. He leads the research company’s analysis of fixed and mobile network services for the Asia-Pacific region. This story was originally published in The Download, the Chorus stakeholder magazine

Apple iPhone SE 2020

Apple took the wraps of the 2020 iPhone SE this week.

It’s the second iPhone to carry the SE label. The new iPhone SE feels more up to the minute today than if Apple had launched it a couple of months earlier.

That’s because it is a lower cost iPhone. New Zealand prices start at $800 for a 64GB version.

Money is going to be tight for many people in the coming months. Phones are a necessity. There will presumably be less appetite for advanced features.1

The best stuff is under the bonnet

The price is lower. It is the cheapest new iPhone model now on sale. The outside resembles an iPhone 8. Yet the inside includes much of the technology found in premium models.

It’s not so much there are compromises. It’s more than the iPhone SE does not include the fancy high end features that bump up the price of a phone.

Apple could sell these by the container load. It looks like being the right product at the right time.

Bionic

In Apple’s words, the iPhone SE is ‘built on the chassis of the iPhone 8’. The processor is the A13 Bionic chip that powers the high-end iPhone 11 Pro. When that model was release only six months ago it was the most powerful phone processor on the market.

Going with the A13 Bionic chip in an $800 phone makes the iPhone SE excellent value. The chip handles many high end tasks. It works wonders with photography. Among other things, it means the phone can handle AI and augmented reality.

The rest of the specification is higher than you might expect. There is Wi-Fi 6 and support for gigabit LTE data traffic, although not 5G. That’s not the problem you might think it could be.

While 5G is being rolled out everywhere, there’s not much a phone user can do with 5G that they can’t do with 4G. Only hard core geeks would notice any difference.

The iPhone SE comes with dual sim and eSim support. There is wireless charging and fast charging. The base model has 64GB of storage.

This all adds up to a significant upgrade to anyone coming from a two year old iPhone.

Apple iPhone SE white

Smaller, hand-sized

One important aspect of the iPhone SE is its size. Most of the world is moving towards huge displays. Apple has stuck with a 4.7-inch screen. This means there is less viewing room, but it also means most people can use the phone one handed.

There has been talk about large phones being sexist as woman’s hands are smaller than men’s. Maybe. The reality is that most men also have to use two hands to drive a modern flagship handset. Heaven knows we even call them handsets under those conditions.

Some people will see the smaller screen size as a reason to avoid the SE. Many more will delight in having a more pocketable phone.

There are a couple of echos of older iPhone designs in the SE. It has a Touch ID button. This means there are large bezels above and below the display. High-end iPhones have not had these for a couple of years now. It’s unlikely anyone will view having Touch ID instead of Face ID as a compromise.

If there is a compromise, it lies in the camera technology. The iPhone SE has a single 12 megapixel camera. Android phones in the same price range tend to have two or three cameras.

Yet even here, things are not straight forward. Apple’s A13 Bionic chip is so capable and the software driving Apple cameras is now so advanced that, in practice, users won’t be at a disadvantage. For almost everyone in the SE target market, the new camera will be a significant upgrade.

Where the iPhone SE fits

The biggest danger for Apple is the iPhone SE will cannibalise sales of other models. There are Apple customers who bit the bullet and paid a king’s ransom for recent iPhone models because they needed the iOS integration more than the premium features they were also paying for.

Some iPhone buyers who were considering buying second hand may now reconsider. Apple dominates the second hand phone sector. The arrival of the SE may have a knock on effect that goes well beyond the iPhone world.

For all the reasons noted above, Apple has delivered the right phone at the right time. There will be other iPhone models later this year. Although that’s uncertain given events elsewhere. Yet the shine went off the premium phone market well before lockdown and economic uncertainty appeared.

It’s hard to judge how the market will turn out. Apple has enjoyed mixed success with lower priced iPhones in the past. Yet given the need to trim budgets while staying productive, the iPhone SE has turned up when it is most needed.


  1. Yes, you can pay less elsewhere and still get a good phone. There are huge productivity gains for people already invested in Apple to stick with iOS. ↩︎

Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip is a another take on the emerging foldable phone format.

Unlike earlier foldable phones which are the size of everyday phones that open to become an iPad mini-sized tablet, the Flip opens long ways. It resembles the flip phones that we are supposed to feel nostalgia for.

It’s neat, but not as useful as other folding phones for reading complex documents.

Samsung Galaxy Z Flip

But there’s something else about the Galaxy Z Flip that appeals to me. It goes a long way to protect you from notification hell.

There’s a tiny screen on the front of the phone which lights up when there is an incoming notification. This is a lot less distracting than having a conventional phone screen light up with with a notification message.

Moreover, because you have to physically open the phone to read the full notification, there is a lot more distance between you and the incoming distraction.

It is easier to ignore the notification and easier to park it for later when you are not trying to focus. It’s not much protection, but enough to ease the cognitive load for a moment or two.

Of course the other possibility is to turn notifications off. That would be cheaper.

Samsung’s Galaxy S20 was one of the worst kept secrets in the phone history. By the time of the official launch everyone interested in the company’s hardware knew the $2200 top model Galaxy S20 has a main camera can capture 108 megapixels. It can also zoom 100 times.

The phone is also one of the first to work with 5G mobile networks.

There was a bizarre New Zealand twist to Samsung’s secrecy. Two days after the company advertised the phone during the US Super Bowl television broadcast and less than 24 hours before the official launch the company asked me to sign a non-disclosure agreement.

I’m not in the habit of signing these anyway, they are all about timing launches to maximise the marketing impact, that should never be a journalist’s concern. But to ask for one when all the details about the phone are already public is nothing but madness.

Samsung is on its second generation of foldable phones. Motorola and Huawei are a step behind, but remain in the game. Will your next phone be one you can fold?

The technology is impressive. All the foldable phones I’ve seen to date look great. They are also useful.

Folding means a handheld phone can morph into a small iPad Mini sized tablet. They make reading and simple online tasks easier than on everyday phones.

From a phone maker perspective they do three important things.

First, they give phone buyers a reason to upgrade. People have been hanging on to phones for longer because there is less pressing reason to upgrade. Adding a new functionality breaks that cycle.

Out of the cul-de-sac

Second, they give phone makers a route of the design cul-de-sac.

Phone formats have stabilised as slabs of glass and metal. They would be almost featureless if it were not for the ever swelling camera bumps. Makers add more lenses and more receptor pixels in a bid to competitive1.

Folding phones open up new ways to differentiate and compete.

The third benefit of folding phones for phone makers is they sell for premium prices. Phone makers can increase the average unit price at a time of intense competition downward pressure on prices.

Phone makers announced two more foldable models in the last week or so. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip and Lenovo’s $1,500 Motorola Razr are both flip phones with folding screens.

Foldables have not got off to a good start. Samsung’s Galaxy Fold was a botched launch. A second wave of models was better, but they are still fragile and expensive at NZ $3400.

Fragile, foldable

The Motorola Razr is as fragile and has poor battery life.

In other words, the models we’ve seen so far are undercooked. They will sell to well-heeled early adopters. These people will pay a king’s ransom to act as guinea pigs. Meanwhile the phone makers can go back to the drawing board and perfect their designs.

They will make it into the mainstream in one of two ways. Either Apple will create a folding iPhone that gets the technology right and resets the market or Samsung will brute force its way to success. The other possibility is that folding phones go the way of 3D television sets.

There’s no doubt this is a development worth watching. My advice is to hang on to your money for now, maybe squeeze another year from your existing phone. The benefits of having a bigger screen are not enough to outweigh the risk of spending a lot of money on something that’s easy to break.


  1. It’s questionable this is what most buyers want. ↩︎