2degrees launched New Zealand’s third mobile network almost ten years ago in August 2009. Today it accounts for roughly one in five mobile connections.
Last week 2degrees reported a modest net profit of $19.6 million on revenue of $805 million.
The company says a highlight of the year was a nine percent increase in contract mobile customers. A six percent drop in prepay customers went some way to offsetting that. It says many of these closed accounts when 2degrees switched off its 2G mobile network.
Still a minnow
It remains a minnow compared to Spark and Vodafone. The two big mobile companies each have around 2.5 million connections, while 2degrees trails with 1.4 million. Spark has almost 700,000 fixed-line broadband connections compared with 87,000 for 2degrees.
Spark’s annual revenue is in the region of $3.5 billion, while Vodafone’s is $2 billion.
2degrees plays an important role in New Zealand’s mobile sector. It makes the market more competitive. Before the company started, New Zealanders paid well over international average prices for mobile phone services.
While 2degrees has been a success on some levels, it has yet to break through in the fixed-line and broadband markets.
It is the number five broadband service provider. 2degrees has about five percent of the market compared with Spark’s 43 percent and Vodafone’s 26 percent. Vocus, 13 percent, is also much bigger.
Another measure of the relative size of New Zealand telcos is the size of their contribution to the Telecommunications Development Levy. This is an annual tax on the industry. The government uses it pay for providing services to deaf and hearing-impaired people. Some of the money subsidises broadband for rural areas and upgrading the 111 emergency service.
2degrees pays the fourth highest contribution behind Spark, Vodafone and Chorus.
One of the biggest problems facing 2degrees is access to investment capital. It doesn’t have Spark’s deep pockets.
When the government auctioned 4G mobile spectrum in 2013, 2degrees didn’t buy its full allocation even though the price was deliberately kept low.
The challenge for 2degrees will be to find the money for further investment. To put this in perspective; Each of those first blocks of 4G spectrum went for $22 million apiece. That’s more than a year’s profit for 2degrees.
A new unlimited mobile plan from 2degrees can be yours for as little as NZ$40 a month if you are on a shared account. If only one person pays the bill it’s NZ$85. This makes it the best bang-for-buck mobile plan in the country, but there are fish-hooks in the small print.
Yet a sensible journalist might suspect something is up when a press release comes with a footnote attached to the word unlimited.
That’s because unlimited has a non-standard meaning in the 2degrees English dialect. While you may think the word means all-you-can-eat data, at 2degrees it stands for 40GB then the data hose becomes a dripping 1mbps tap.
On top of that, the small print warns: “hotspotting speeds may be reduced further during periods of network congestion”.
So, it’s not unlimited in any usually accepted sense.
That said, the new 2degrees unlimited plan is generous. It is also a better deal than you’ll get from the big mobile carriers.
A monthly 40GB data cap, that’s what we’re really talking about here, is more than you’re likely to need if you use your phone for mail, browsing the web and running everyday apps.
It’s also plenty if you hotspot or tether for similar use. Laptops and iPads can often get through more data than phones.
The 40GB cap is not going to get you far if you watch a lot of streaming video. Even if you stick to modest resolution video, you’ll get through your entire month’s allowance in a couple of days. Choose high-definition video and 2degrees will throttle your connection before the sun goes down on day one.
Small print aside, the 2degrees unlimited mobile plan is beyond competitive. Assuming you get decent coverage on the network, it’s a bargain. The deal is especially good for families sharing a single account. That 40GB cap is per person. Which means you can get all the phone and mobile data four family members need for NZ$160.
Huawei has played a central role in New Zealand’s telecommunications infrastructure for a decade. The company’s New Zealand deputy managing director, Andrew Bowater, says it started working with 2degrees four years before the telco’s network was switched on in 2009.
The 2degrees partnership played a crucial role when in 2013, Telecom, now Spark, chose Huawei’s hardware to power its 4G mobile network. Bowater says; “We wouldn’t have won that without 2degrees, we wouldn’t be here today without them.”
Huawei’s relationship with Spark went deep. The two worked together to break new ground, they were the first to use 700 MHz spectrum for a 4G mobile network. New Zealand got that ahead of the world. Likewise, they were early getting 4.5G technology to market.
A Commerce Commission investigation into mobile market competition is underway. The carriers think they’ve seen enough regulation, with some justification. And yet there are areas where New Zealand’s mobile market does not work as well as it might.
Spark managing director Simon Moutter has a point when he says New Zealand’s mobile market is competitive.
On the most obvious level, the mobile market works well. Prices for monthly accounts, calls and texts have fallen. Consumers pay less and get more.
New Zealand is no longer an expensive place to own a mobile phone. Cellular voice and text prices are in line with those in comparative overseas markets.
2degrees not lobbying for regulation
It speaks volumes that 2degrees is not asking for further market structure changes. The third carrier is profitable and continues to put price pressure on Spark and Vodafone.
2degrees CEO Stewart Sherriff says his company invented competition in New Zealand. His company has certainly made the mobile phone sector price competitive in a way that it wasn’t before.
Prices from the larger carriers didn’t start to fall in earnest until 2degrees got market traction. Sherriff’s company is often the first to move on price. 2degrees is innovative and aggressive when it comes to pricing bundles of mobile services.
In Moutter’s eyes, the tough price competition at this level is enough to prove the market works. Yet we could do better.
Where the market doesn’t work
There is one clear way New Zealand’s mobile market competition isn’t functioning as well as it might. Customer service is, at best, indifferent. Often it is appalling.
If the market was truly competitive, carriers would not be able to get away with leaving customers on hold for hours or failing to solve trivial technical problems.
That’s not something the Commerce Commission can address in a direct way. Complacency about customer service is a clear sign a market could be more competitive. We replaced a monopoly with a duopoly and then an oligopoly. From a consumer point of view: worst, worse and not good.
Areas the Commerce Commission should address
There are three areas the Commerce Commission needs to address in its mobile market review. All three have the potential to improve competition.
First, New Zealanders still pay too much for mobile data.
Second, there are warning signs of collusion between carriers that should worry the regulator.
Third and top of the list is the lack of diversity in mobile phone service retailers.
“I note that submitters raised concerns about the effectiveness of regulation at the wholesale level, particularly with regard to the provision of Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) services. In other countries, these services are an important part of the mobile ecosystem, and the widespread availability of such services has led to better outcomes for consumers.”
It is theoretically possible there are no MVNOs in New Zealand because the market competition is already so perfect and the incumbents look after customer needs so well that there is no room for them.
That argument doesn’t stand up for a moment.
When is an MVNO not an MVNO?
New Zealand’s biggest MVNO isn’t really an MVNO at all. Spark’s Skinny business exists to give the nation’s largest telco a budget brand without cannibalising its core market. Skinny is not a true MVNO because its parent company owns the network.
Skinny is Spark lite. Today Skinny customers get almost the same product as Spark customers but without the value-adds like Wi-Fi hotspots and Spotify. Otherwise, the plans are a few dollars less each month than equivalent Spark plans.
In effect, Skinny is another Spark mobile product line.
New Zealand’s next biggest MVNO is the 2degrees-Warehouse tie-up. It is price competitive but hasn’t caused any waves in the market. The number of customers would be a rounding error on the numbers for the three big players.
The Warehouse isn’t pushing hard with its mobile option. If you walk into a store you’ll have to hunt to see where you can buy it and sales staff don’t seem motivated to emphasise it.
Vocus is New Zealand’s fourth largest telco. Unlike the three bigger telecom companies it doesn’t own a mobile network.
There are some Vocus MVNO customers, but not many. You could probably fit them all in a room. Vocus doesn’t make much money, if any from them and, like The Warehouse, it isn’t marketed.
Full telco service
In most other western countries a business like Vocus would be able to partner with a carrier and offer its customers a full telecommunications service including mobile. It would be able to bundle services and offer keen prices.
That’s not the case in New Zealand. Likewise, you can imagine other smaller telcos and even companies that dabble in telco like, say, TrustPower, would love to offer mobile as an add-on to power and broadband.
MVNOs perform two vital market functions. First, they often serve more specialist customer needs not catered for by the bigger players.
MVNOs are about choice
Second, they act as a pressure valve for the market. Many disgruntled customers leave one carrier only to find their new choice is just as annoying. The MVNOs give consumers a new set of choices.
Until MVNOs make up about ten percent of the market, preferably more, New Zealand does not have true mobile competition.
The Commerce Commission needs to look at the barriers to entry for MVNOs. If these are structural, then there is a need for new rules.
We pay a lot for mobile data. This is especially true when you look at data-only plans. We pay a lot more than, say, Australia.
On the other side of the Tasman, you can pay A$65 a month for 50GB of mobile data. In the UK £25 buys 100GB of mobile data. That’s around NZ$50.
At the time of writing the best deal in New Zealand is 2degree’s 25GB for NZ$70. That’s roughly twice the price Australians pay and, depending on exchange rates and taxes, around five times the UK price.
Economy of scale
While you can argue that Australia and the UK have economies of scale, it’s hard to imagine scale means the cost of supply in New Zealand is twice that in Australia or five times that in the UK.
It is significant that the Australia data deal quoted above is from Amaysim, a MVNO. These smaller MVNO players have put huge pressure on the prices charged by the network owners for data.
There’s another way you can look at New Zealand’s mean mobile data caps. The competitive pressure in other countries means carriers dedicate their spectrum to satisfying the needs of mobile customers. If they don’t, someone else will.
Fixed wireless broadband
Spark mobile customers share the company’s cellular bandwidth with 100,000 fixed wireless broadband customers. If the mobile market was competitive, Spark could not afford to risk degrading the mobile data experience.
How Spark manages its resources is the company’s own affair. It is certainly possible to run fixed and mobile broadband on the same networks without disappointing either group of users — that happens in lots of countries. It’s possible there is enough spectrum to satisfy both groups.
Spark may have a good explanation why 100,000 fixed wireless customers downloading gigabytes each month have nothing to do with mobile market competition. But it’s something the Commerce Commission investigation needs to take into account.
Is there a cartel?
A third area the Commerce Commission needs to consider is something from left field. The three carriers have banded together to build a rural mobile network with shared infrastructure.
The Rural Connectivity Group is an intelligent and innovative solution to what looks like a tricky problem: delivering broadband to small remote communities and filling in the mobile blackspot on country roads.
While it makes sense for rivals to co-operate on a project of this nature, it isn’t without risk. In his book The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith wrote:
People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.
Smith was no tin-foil hat conspiracy theorist, he is recognised as the father of modern capitalism. His name is forever tied to the ideas of free markets.
Rural Connectivity model
The danger with the RCG is that it could become the model for the next generation of mobile networks throughout New Zealand. There have already been whispers of the carriers considering acting together to build a 5G network.
When Chorus recently floated the idea of creating a UFB-style open access 5G mobile network the carriers were quick to shoot it down. A line hidden in a media statement from Vodafone could be interpreted as suggesting the carriers are thinking of building a shared 5G network:
There is no question that industry-wide collaboration makes sense in some instances, and the industry has already demonstrated working models for this.
You could see this as getting the regulator and others used to the idea of industry collaboration when it comes to 5G.
Moutter takes the argument further. He starts by saying Spark can build a 5G network on its own:
No industry amalgamation was required for the transition from 3G to 4G, and none is required from 4G to 5G. Based on our current analysis, we think the investment for 5G will be manageable, as we will be able to leverage our existing 4G and 4.5G physical infrastructure.
Which sounds reasonable. He then goes on to say:
That’s not to rule out sensible infrastructure sharing where that can speed up deployment or address visual pollution issues that might come from the deployment of more network sites – we are supportive of those models. But to jump straight to a conclusion that we need a monopoly network would be crazy.
Which could be another subtle softening up of the idea of a shared infrastructure. When you run a large partly vertically integrated business “sensible” can take on a lot of meanings.
As 5G networks are understood at the moment, they will need many more towers than today’s networks so the deployment issues and visual pollution he mentions are a given.
None of this is to say the carriers are planning to build a shared 5G network, nor is it to say the network structure will be inherently anticompetitive. It is something for a market regulator to consider and watch.
Competition or cartel?
It’s not the Commerce Commission’s job to second guess an as-yet-unsettled technology. Nor can it speculate about plans that may only be written on the back of paper napkins.
Yet it strains credulity to think the three carriers put their heads together to plan the RCG without at least mentioning how such a collaboration might work in the future.
At this point the Wikipedia definition of a cartel is useful:
A cartel is a group of apparently independent producers whose goal is to increase their collective profits by means of price fixing, limiting supply, or other restrictive practices. Cartels typically control selling prices, but some are organised to control the prices of purchased inputs.
No-one would suggest any of this is happening at present, but allowing the three carriers to build a shared network would be a step on the path to a potential cartel-like arrangement.
The levy is, in effect, an extra and, somewhat discriminatory, tax on telecommunications companies imposed by the outgoing National government. It adds up to a roughly one percent increase in telecommunications prices.
As in previous years Spark and Vodafone are the biggest contributors paying 35 and 26 percent. Chorus and 2degrees are three and four.
The big four players will pay more than 90 percent of the total levy. Another eleven companies will pay about eight percent of the TDL between them.
There’s a double whammy for Chorus investors. Not only does the company not get any of the TDL money back in the form of contracts, but unlike the telcos, Chorus can’t raise prices to fund the tax because most of its rates are regulated.
What the TDL says about the industry
Only companies with telecommunications revenue of more than $10 million pay the TDL. When deciding how much each should pay, the Commerce Commission extracts a number it calls qualifying revenue. This figure can often be well below $10 million.
The commission adds all the qualifying revenue. Then companies pay a share of the $50 million TDL based on their share of qualifying revenue.
You could look at the way the share changes as a crude, yet effective, measure of relative performance.
The total pool of qualifying revenue changed little between this year’s determination and last year’s. In both cases it comes to a little over $4.2 billion.
In other words, taken as a whole, New Zealand telecommunications industry growth is flat. Taking inflation into account, that means it is actually in gentle decline.
Spark still dominates, but falling
Spark remains the largest contributor to the TDL. In the 2016-2017 year its share was a fraction over 35 percent of the total. That’s down from almost 38 percent a year ago, a fall of around 2.5 percent.
Vodafone barely shifted position in the year at a little over 26 percent. Its share of the TDL total climbed by 0.1 percent. You could see this as closing the gap on Spark. In very round numbers Spark is around a third of the total market and Vodafone is a quarter.
Chorus saw its share of the total grow by half a percent. It remains the third largest telco with getting on for 23 percent of the total.
2degrees is a climber. Its share of the total grew from 7.25 percent to 8.38 percent. This reflects the company’s strong performance in the market. While it is still a long way behind Vodafone and Spark, to be almost a third the size of Vodafone after seven years in the market is a major achievement.
The five largest telcos collectively account for almost 96 percent of the total TDL in this year’s determination. That’s down one percent from last year.
This is because of fibre and the rise of the regional fibre companies. Ultrafast Fibre, Enable and Northpower saw their total share climb from less than one percent of the total to about 1.6 percent.
This happens because as customers move from the copper network to UFB fibre some of the money those customer pays switches from Chorus to the regional fibre company. As more sign up for fibre these companies will continue to grow their share of the TDL, but at some point they will stabilise.
Most of the other changes are down to what scientists might call noise in the numbers. Although there is a newcomer in the TDL list this year, Now only accounts for 0.13 percent of the total.