Slingshot Broadband

 

Slingshot has dropped the price of its fastest unlimited data fibre broadband plan to a shade under $100. The Gigantic fibre plan is $99.95 a month. Slingshot says it is available in most towns and cities where there is fibre.

It is an aggressive price move from Slingshot. The company has thrown down the gauntlet to larger service providers who already complain about margins. Offering the cheapest option is vital in a market like New Zealand where consumers tend to buy on price more than any other criteria.

Spark charges $40 more for a service with similar characteristics although it does offer streaming TV and wi-fi hotspots as added incentives. The company’s no-frills BigPipe brand charges $130 for a naked, unlimited gigabit plan. Vodafone’s comparable plan is $110. 2degrees charges $115 for a similar product.

A gigabit by any other name would smell as sweet

The Gigantic plan includes gigabit technology. While the term is in common use elsewhere in the world. New Zealand’s Commerce Commission rules don’t allow ISPs to describe plans as gigabit.

That’s because there are network overheads so the available speeds to customers are less than the full 1000 mbps. In most cases customers get around 800 to 950 mbps. The company’s announcement is more cautious, it warns customers may only see speeds in the 700 to 900 mbps range.

Either way, it is still by far the fastest option and the best choice for heavy media users or homes with many devices. Whatever you call them, these plans mean there is never a case of not having enough broadband at home.

Slingshot General Manager Taryn Hamilton says the extra speed: “Makes a huge difference to the quality of the online experience”. He says the price cut is designed to stimulate greater take up of the faster plans.

Gigabit plans are still relatively new. Only a small number of users choose them, in part that’s because they normally come at a premium price. However, that’s changing fast. By dropping the price under $100, Slingshot has reduced the gap with the more popular 100 mbps plans. This means customers can upgrade to the best experience for a small extra amount each month.

Silverdale 4.5G cell siteFor over a year Spark has pushed fixed wireless broadband as an alternative to fixed-line internet.

Spark sells fixed wireless products using its own label and its cut-price Skinny brand.

From a customer point of view the two services are identical.

Skinny is cheaper. The cheapest plan is NZ$40 a month. At NZ$85 Spark’s own-brand fixed wireless product is more expensive. It even costs more than low-end unlimited fibre plans. In contrast, Spark’s Skinny brand has a $68 unlimited fibre plan.

Customers choosing Spark fixed wireless broadband over a fibre plan get inducements including a free streaming TV service but they won’t save money.

You can be forgiven for thinking wireless broadband is a new idea. It isn’t. The technology is over a decade old. However, things have changed since it first appeared.

Today’s 4G mobile technology has matured to the point where a carrier can offer an attractive enough product to compete with fixed-line broadband in some circumstances.

Extra spectrum makes fixed wireless broadband work

Spark picked up extra spectrum in the 2016 700 MHz auction. This gives the company enough capacity to make its fixed wireless practical and attractive to customers.

When Spark first started selling fixed wireless services to rural customers, they could see speeds in the region of 80 Mbps. That is comparable with fibre. Indeed, it is faster than the basic UFB fibre products on offer.

Few of today’s customers will see speeds like those enjoyed by the first to climb on board Spark’s RBI service. While wireless has many admirable qualities — more about them later — it has a big weakness. Wireless spectrum is shared by all the users.

In practice this means wireless networks can get congested. As more customers in an area served by an antennae sign for fixed wireless services, the average speed per user drops. This can happen at any moment, but is more noticeable at busy times.

This speed drop can, and often is, managed by network operators like Spark.

Dealing with congestion

One way they can get around congestion is to limit the number of customers connected to any particular cell site.

Spark and Skinny are already not accepting new fixed wireless connections in some busy areas. Even so, congestion woes always lurk in the background.

Another way carriers manage congestion is by limiting the amount of data each user can download. Fixed wireless broadband plans usually come with data caps. That is, the amount of data you can use is rationed. At the time of writing Skinny offers 40Gb and 100GB plans.

Data caps are not a problem for many users. 40GB is a lot of data if you just do mail, surf the web and watch a few cat videos.

It is not enough data to watch a lot of high quality streaming television.

Depending on picture quality you might go through a gigabyte in an hour watching Netflix. If you have a handful of family members each watching their own streaming TV and using other online services you will bust your cap.

With fibre you can use all the services you like without keeping one eye on the meter. Many regard removing that worry as well worth paying for.

Next wireless broadband generation

Over time wireless speeds and capacity will improve as carriers like Spark invest in new wireless network technologies. Spark already has many sites described as 4.5G. It adds more every month.

This mobile technology generation can be improved a few more times. We can, in theory, go all the way to 4.9G, although carriers don’t use that term when talking to the public.

In two to three years from now the next generation of mobile technology, 5G, will arrive in New Zealand in earnest. You can expect speeds to be faster again and individual cell sites should be able to handle more data.

The move from 4G to 5G is neither cheap or straightforward. Expect disruption.

Spark pushes fixed wireless broadband harder than the other two mobile network companies. In part that’s because it wants to get the most from its investment in spectrum.

There’s another reason. Every service provider, including Spark, has to pay a fibre company around $40 each month for a wholesale fibre connection. Most fibre subscriptions sell for between around $70 and $100 a month. The wholesale cost doesn’t leave much room for margin.

When Spark sells a fixed wireless subscription, it gets to keep the entire $85. There are costs, but the gross margin is far better.

Spark told shareholders its margins have improved since it moved around 100,000 customers onto fixed wireless.

At the same time, Spark gets to retain control. It manages fixed wireless connections all the way from a customer’s desk to the big internet hubs. Having this control, known in the industry as vertical integration, means it stays in control. Phone companies like vertical integration as it helps them maintain margins.

More customers, more towers

There’s a limit on the number of fixed wireless broadband customers Spark can support with today’s technology and the existing tower network. That will change over time, but it’s unlikely Spark could add a further 100,000 wireless customers in the next 12 months without building new towers. Estimates vary on where it can go at this stage.

If Spark pushes too hard its mobile phone customers will notice a degraded service. Still there is some room for growth on the network.

Meanwhile Spark has accelerated its network upgrade plans. It is confident the investment in 4.5G and later upgrades will pay dividends. One challenge will be meeting customer demands for higher data caps as they consumer ever more services.

Spark sees wireless technology, both fixed and mobile, as the way of the future. It’s arguably the right strategy for a large telco with a mobile network, deep pockets and substantial spectrum holdings. But wireless isn’t the only path to the future.

For now, the wireless first strategy is working for Spark. Its shareholders like the higher margins. They may be less delighted with the strategy when they see the cost of rolling out a 5G network and buying more spectrum.

Chorus’ network hit its 2017 peak at 9.25pm on December 10. The broadband network was delivering 1.328 Terabits per second.

We once measured large amounts of data in terms of books or towers of compact discs between here and the moon. This time Chorus says the peak was the same as 260,000 HD video streams being watched at the same time.

Four days into 2018 high demand during a storm broke the record. On January 4, at the same hour, the network hit 1.33 Terabits per second. No doubt the record will soon broken again as numbers continue to climb.

The people of Porirua are the most voracious data consumers. In December the average household chewed through 202GB, that’s 34 percent up on a year earlier.

Nationwide average data consumption on the Chorus network is now 174GB a month. That’s up from 123GB a year ago.

Fibre broadband accounts use more data

Users with fibre accounts use more data than those with a copper connection. While the average monthly data base across the entire Chorus network is 174GB, customers with fibre use around 250GB.

In September a Chorus forecast said this will climb to an average of around 680GB a month by 2020. In part the rise will come as more accounts move from copper to fibre.

The growth is largely about television moving from broadcast distribution to online, on-demand delivery.

Chorus network strategy manager Kurt Rodgers says it is not just the big international providers like Netflix driving this change. He says TVNZ and Three launched live streaming in 2017 and that has helped online television become mainstream.

Rodgers says people are watching on smart TVs, but they also watch on phones and tablets connected to home wi-fi networks. He says phone handsets are used more often with wi-fi than as traditional phones.

Broadband speeds on the Chorus network are also higher. Dunedin, which was the original Gigatown now has an average connection speed of 265Mbps. Rotorua is next on 72Mbps and Wellington is in third sport with 70Mbps. The national average across the Chorus network is 64Mbps.

A note on broadband averages

Chorus measures average use because that makes number sense for a network operator. It divides the total amount of data across the network by the number of user accounts.

The figure is, simple, easy to understand and demonstrates how demand for data is growing. It helps Chorus plan for growth. It makes discussion straightforward.

Not everyone likes this measure. Some point out that the data use pattern is not a Bell curve. They says that a small number of high-end users skew the average number higher. They argue that the median amount of data used is lower than the average.

There’s something in this. Yet the median and the average numbers are moving closer as more and more New Zealanders switch to streaming video. Or in other words, high data use is becoming mainstream.

Also on:

Stuff Pix new directionStuff Fibre says it is to offer Stuff Pix, a movie streaming service, from early next year. It takes the company in a new direction, one that hasn’t been tried before in New Zealand.

While getting into content is a natural move for an ISP part-owned by Fairfax, the largest regional media company, Stuff Pix has little to do with its parent’s traditional news business.

Instead, Stuff Pix opens with a catalogue of around 600 movies. Customers can watch them online for between $1 and $7 each.

Paddy Buckley who previously headed Quickflix in New Zealand will run Stuff Pix as general manager.

Stuff Pix not taking on Netflix

Buckley says the operation is a replacement for closed video stores, not a Netflix competitor. It will be open to all internet users and its main attraction will be the price. There is no subscription fee. Customers pay a one-off fee to view each movie.

He says the prices will be the lowest on the market. While it is technically possible to buy movies for less by parallel importing, customers need to set up a VPN (virtual private network).

Different, not differentiator

Although part-owned by a large corporation, Stuff Fibre is a broadband minnow and has yet to make an impact on the market. Until now it has offered rock-bottom prices and little else.

Adding Stuff Pix to the business is a bold attempt to build something other than a low-margin, race-to-the-bottom owner of a dumb pipe.

As you might expect from a minnow, Stuff Pix is a modest entry into the streaming market which is dominated around the world by Netflix.

The list of 600 movies is not large. Most old-school video stores had far more extensive catalogues. The movies on offer are not-exclusive. Stuff Pix will sell to people who are not Stuff Fibre customers.

In other words, with the way the businesses and offers are structured at present, no-one is going to buy Stuff Fibre to get at Stuff Pix. On that basis, it isn’t a differentiator. But it is an extra line of revenue and that’s important.

Buckley says Stuff Pix prices will be the lowest on the market. This means it will run on slender margins. The broadband service business is all about relatively small margins: the steady drip of subscription fees rolling in month after month that can still be a money-making recipe.

Revenue per user

Normally when ISPs add media, the idea is to bolster the margins and to raise the average revenue earned per user. That could work at Stuff Fibre, there will be opportunities to cross-sell moves to existing customers.

New Zealand’s two largest ISPs, Vodafone and Spark, have their own media offering. Vodafone resells Sky TV content through its Vodafone TV service. It isn’t cheap. Yet has an extensive catalogue of material and exclusive rights to popular sporting codes so there is a lot of value in the bundle.

Vodafone TV has the potential to more than double the revenue the company gets from each customer. It should do even better when it comes to lifting the per customer profit.

Meanwhile, Spark’s Lightbox streaming service seems a defensive play although it is a clear differentiator. Spark customers get Lightbox as part of broadband or mobile accounts. It’s a way of adding value and justifying higher prices. Spark’s basic unlimited fibre plan costs $95 a month compared to Stuff Fibre’s basic $90 a month.

Also on:

Commerce Commission Monitoring ReportLast week Spark boss Simon Moutter told shareholders at the company’s AGM it is cheaper to win customers through merger and acquisition than through market efforts.

The NBR reports him saying: “We expect to see, and participate in, significant consolidation of the retail broadband industry over the next couple of years.

Give that Vocus NZ is on the market, it’s not hard to join the dots here. We can assume that Spark NZ is interested in buying some or all of Vocus.

If Spark buys Vocus NZ

There are other assets, including the fibre network built by FX Networks. But taking Moutter’s AGM comments at face value, Vocus’s broadband business is in his sights. That’s CallPlus, Slingshot, Orcon and a couple of minor brands.

Let’s assume the price is right and Spark is able to beat any rival bidders. What does this mean for market competition?

It all depends on which market you’re looking at. If we take the total New Zealand retail telecommunications sector as a whole, a Spark-Vocus acquisition would not change much.

A good starting for measuring market share among significant players is the 2016-17 TDL liability allocation determination drawn up by the Commerce Commission.

This is used to work out each telco’s share of the Telecommunications Development Levy. Only sizable telcos pay the levy, their share is proportional to the company’s share of the total qualifying revenue. In effect this number is the company’s share of the retail telecommunications market.

Spark dominates

Spark is by far the largest market player with a 35 percent share of the industry qualified revenue. Vocus is the fifth largest company on the list, but its share is a shade over three percent. Add the two together and the list looks much the same as before.

On this basis there is almost no obvious reason for the Commerce Commission to object to Spark NZ buying Vocus. The market dynamic would be almost the same as before.

The almost in that last paragraph is because the Commerce Commission’s Annual Telecommunications Monitoring report for 2016 shows Spark’s share of fixed line retail revenues as a line item. It has been falling for a decade.

By implication, Spark’s falling market share shows competition is working. If Spark acquired Vocus NZ, this figure would tick up. That may or may not be enough to ring alarm bells. Yet, while the Commerce Commission may not relish industry consolidation, it can’t necessarily stand in the way of bigger-picture market trends.

Broadband market

Retail broadband market share NZ 2016

Things get tricky if the Commerce Commission decides competition is important in the broadband market.

Spark is the largest broadband retailer with a 46 percent market share. Vodafone is number two with a 29 percent share. Vocus is the next largest player with 14 percent of the market.

The three top broadband retailers have 90 percent of the market.

Add Spark’s broadband market share to Vocus and you have a company with 60 percent of the market.

Spark is already the largest and in every respect it dominates. Yet to go from 46 percent to 60 percent would reset the market.

If Vodafone were to buy Vocus NZ, it would still have a smaller market share than Spark. The two would be, in effect, on equal footing.