Satellites in NZ: Starlink, Amazon Leo & competition

Originally published August 2025 featuring Gartner analyst Khurram Shahzad's market analysis. Updated January 2026 with more comprehensive coverage of currently competing providers, NZ telco strategies and market developments.

New Zealand's satellite broadband leadership 

Leo satellite broadband has been popular with New Zealanders in remote areas since Starlink first arrived four years ago. A year ago *Download Weekly* reported: "New Zealand has the highest number of satellite connections per person in the OECD". 

This early adoption reflects New Zealand's unique geography—dispersed rural population, challenging terrain, and limited fixed-line infrastructure in many areas. What started as a rural solution is evolving into mainstream competition for terrestrial networks. 

Melbourne-based Gartner director analyst Khurram Shahzad says the technology will soon break out of its rural niche and become mainstream. 

He says, “Up until three years ago, there were only around 3000 satellites in the sky. But in the last three years we have reached around 11,000. At this pace, we are on track to exceed 40,000 satellites in the next three years. It means satellite communication will become more mainstream.”

Reusable rockets change the economics

One of the drivers is that, thanks to reusable rockets, the cost of satellite launches has dropped to the point where it is no longer a barrier to entry.

Shahzad says One NZ's direct-to-mobile partnership has the first mover advantage and has the largest constellation, but it is not the only player. There are new companies focused on different markets like services for IoT or direct to mobile.

Satellites have long been the obvious choice in places where there is no terrestrial connectivity. Shahzad says this will expand so that the technology will complement existing services and, in some cases, replace them.

Better quality for rural users

“There are still a lot of areas where broadband quality is not good enough, or the infrastructure does not provide high-speed broadband. Leos (Low Earth Orbit satellites) can provide better speeds in those instances.

“And there are businesses who want a backup or a fallback. So if there is an outage, they still have business continuity.”

Another area where satellites are likely to dominate is with connected or autonomous vehicles. Shahzad says new electric vehicles now come with embedded satellite connectivity, to the point where some car manufacturers are launching their own satellites.

The technology is also being used where people work at a temporary location such as a construction site. And then there are the maritime and aviation applications, neither of these are well served by existing networks.

The competitive landscape: Who's launching 

 Starlink: The market leader Starlink dominates with over 6,400 satellites and 4 million global subscribers. In New Zealand, the service costs $79 a month for residential plans, undercutting many rural fixed wireless options. 

But success brings challenges. Growing subscriber numbers are causing congestion issues, especially in the US where Starlink now charges "congestion fees" of up to US$750 in crowded areas. New Zealand hasn't faced similar capacity constraints—yet. 

Starlink's partnership with One NZ for direct-to-mobile services represents the future: satellites providing backup and extending coverage beyond traditional cell towers. 

Amazon's Project Kuiper: The challenger Amazon's Project Kuiper is coming, though later than planned. With Amazon's deep pockets and logistics expertise, Kuiper could undercut Starlink on price while leveraging AWS integration for enterprise customers. 

Shahzad notes Amazon already has manufacturing capacity ramping up and launch contracts secured. The question isn't if Kuiper will compete, but how aggressively Amazon prices to gain market share.

AST SpaceMobile: Direct-to-phone 2degrees is building dedicated ground infrastructure for AST SpaceMobile's 2026 launch. Unlike Starlink's dish-based service, AST promises to work with existing phones—no special equipment needed. 

If it works as advertised, this could eliminate mobile coverage gaps entirely. Every phone becomes satellite-capable. That's transformative for rural New Zealand and emergency services. 

Lynk Global: The early mover Lynk partnered with 2degrees before the local carrier began working with AST, testing two-way voice and text. While AST focuses on data, Lynk emphasizes basic connectivity—text and voice where there's currently nothing. For trampers, farmers and emergency situations, reliable text messaging could be life-saving.

OneWeb and others: The satellite market will support multiple players serving different niches. Europe's Iris² constellation]targets government and defence applications. OneWeb focuses on enterprise and maritime.

New Zealand telco strategies 

One NZ: All-in on Starlink One NZ launched cell-tower-in-the-sky satellites is the most aggressive telco satellite strategy globally. The company is using Starlink satellites as "cell towers in the sky" to deliver their controversial100% population coverage promise. 

Spark uses Starlink differently—as backup for mobile backhaul when fibre links fail. It's disaster recovery rather than primary infrastructure. 

2degrees is building a satellite ground station that positions the company to offer direct-to-phone services without dishes or special hardware. The carrier is betting on integrated satellite-terrestrial services where users seamlessly switch between cell towers and satellites without noticing.

Competition coming

Amazon’s arrival will sharpen market competition. Shahzad says we can expect to see five or six major players but there will be more. “By our last count, there are almost 20 providers in this space who are all building their own constellations.”

The bottleneck for the industry is finding launch slots, which is where SpaceX and Starlink have another advantage. Many of the would be competitors will use SpaceX for launches.

“Once this bottleneck is overcome, we can expect to see tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands of satellites in the sky. He says experts estimate the maximum number could be around a million.”

Challenges remain

Despite cheaper launches, the technology has one big disadvantage over terrestrial networks: satellites have a limited life span.

“It's around five years for the earlier versions. Starlink says the new satellites last eight to 10 years, perhaps. But even then, they need to replenish those satellites quite often. It also means that there is potential of a lot of space debris. And that is one area which is still a little grey.”

Another grey area is spectrum. Satellite operators typically don’t buy spectrum and there are multiple competing and conflicting standards around the world.

What this means for New Zealand 

The satellite broadband revolution creates both opportunities and challenges:

Opportunities: - Universal connectivity—truly no dead zones - Competition driving down prices - Backup and resilience for businesses and essential services  - New applications (autonomous vehicles, IoT) 

Challenges: -Congestion as subscriber numbers grow - Integration with existing networks - Spectrum coordination - Space debris management New Zealand's early adoption and geographic challenges make it an ideal testbed for satellite services. What happens here often predicts global trends.

Direct to mobile

When it comes to direct to mobile services there are some satellite operators who use the spectrum allocated to their mobile network operator partners. That will make newer satellite operators dependent on their partners.

Because spectrum is allocated on a country by country basis, and most MNOs are based in a single country, satellite operators will have to manage a patchwork of standards.

Shahzad says there are issues managing interoperability and handover: “How do you manage interference between the two? How do you manage the handover, and do you want to carry on the session from one network to the other—and how do you bring it back?”

More on LEO satellites and space-based connectivity:

Comprehensive coverage of satellite broadband, direct-to-mobile services and the competitive landscape:

• Starlink making waves in rural New Zealand
• One New Zealand launches first satellite IoT network
• Network upgrades and satellite moves
• Download Weekly - Satellites to back-up Spark mobile backhaul
• 2degrees claims satellite-to-phone first