Three non-obvious predictions for 2014
December saw a flurry of 2014 technology forecasts. I predict the same thing will happen next year.
Most forecasts fall into two categories. First there are those along the lines of ‘cloud computing company X predicts 2014 will be the year of cloud computing’.
In other words it's advertising. Some of these forecasts are clever, some are ridiculously unsubtle.
You could describe the second group as “the bleeding obvious”.
In contrast here are three forecasts 2014 that you couldn’t figure out simply by drawing a straight line graph though recent data:
Until Apple moves, the smartwatch is dead
Last week I had coffee with someone who took an incoming call on a Galaxy Gear watch hooked up to a Samsung phone.
On one level it was mildly impressive that the technology worked.
And yet that’s all it is. Smartwatches are ugly, clumsy devices that add little, other than cost, to the modern phone experience.
Sure, they’re likely to be a hit with geeks. And yes, Samsung, Sony, Pebble and others will inflict a million or so smartwatches on early adopters over the next 12 months or so.
A million devices is not a hit product. Smartwatches will not become mass market products like smartphones.
That's unless Apple does something great with the format. Then all bets are off.
Chromebook or something like it will thrive for now
Apple and Microsoft have left a yawning gap in the market for a low-cost, simple to use laptop. MacBooks are nice but expensive. Too expensive for many users. Meanwhile, rightly or wrongly the horrid, jarring Windows 8 user interface scares off potential Microsoft customers.
And Windows laptops can be too complex for people who prefer simplicity.
Google’s Chromebook can be dirt cheap and is all the computer many users need. The category is new, yet companies like Acer have already squeezed prices below NZ$400. There’s potential to pack more value into Chromebooks in 2014. The devices could take off.
It’s just as possible tablets could fill the low-end, simple computing void and Chromebooks will never command a large market share, yet I can see Chromebook thrive for now. Eventually something else will fill that gap.
Desktops, laptops, tablets and phones continue matter even if they don't sell in large numbers
Computer makers, particularly the second-tier Asian brands spent much of 2012 and 2013 playing with alternative computer formats. For example transformer-like devices that turn a smartphone into a desktop PC or something that is both a tablet and a laptop.
We saw a few wackier items too.
This was a healthy exploration of the alternative formats and something of a creative flowering. It was also a dead-end. We now know the formats that matter are desktops, laptops, tablets and phones. Yes there is blurring between these categories, but for now the key, practical device formats are locked in place.
Formats may change when computers get better at understanding human speech. You can see a hint of how this will work with Google Glass, but that device and others like it are not ready for mainstream acceptance.