Mobile carrier thinking will be dominated by 5G

IDC vice-president Hugh Ujhazy says 5G is going to be huge for the mobile carrier sector.

He says: “We’ve done a telco capex [capital expenditure] forecast for the Asia-Pacific region excluding China and Japan. The fastest growing single capex item is the build out of 5G radio access networks.

It’s going to grow at 93 per cent compound annual growth rate [CAGR]  over the next five years. That’s in a context of a decline of about 1.6 per cent CAGR decline in in their total capex. So, it’s obviously going to be big for operators.”

For Ujhazy, 5G remains mainly an enterprise play, but there is also a consumer play in the mix. He says carriers need 5G technology because it simplifies and streamlines their job of provisioning and managing a cellular customer. They also need it so they can keep offering the increase in performance and capacity that we’ve all come to expect.

Ujhazy has changed his view of network slicing in the last year. “I didn’t believe in the private networks that are possible with 5G. Vodafone Global changed my mind. They said they have about 160 different requirements – that’s expressions of customer interest – already on the table. So there will be a place for it. I’m not sure how that will make sense over time. But it is coming.”

No overnight change

Another aspect of 5G is that it won’t be an overnight revolution. He says: “It is going to be with us for the next 20 years. There’s no need to run up to the buffet to grab a quick bite, it will be here for a while.

“Everything about the landscape for 5G is a co-existence strategy with 4G. And that 4G network isn’t going anywhere probably for the next two decades. When we look at things like broad widescale coverage over long distances, a lot of that is best left to 4G.”

The big change will come with stand-alone 5G. Once the millimetre spectrum is available, that will be where customers get to see the promised high speeds. He says: “It is only going to be there in pockets where it is needed. You’ll see a blended environment in terms of the Gs for some time.”

This mixed environment goes for all the Gs: 3, 4 and 5G. Ujhazy says each of them does something interesting. “The 3G is used today for M2M [machine to machine], for cellular connected devices that will probably move to narrowband. Some markets are retiring their 3G, but the message here is all about the overall portfolio of connectivity options you now have as a user.

“It’s the same for enterprise customers and consumers. You have everything from fibre to Wi-Fi 6 to 4G and 5G. We’ve got more choices than ever before and building the right strategy for that is the challenge we face.”

Sydney-based Hugh Ujhazy is vice president, IoT and telecommunications for IDC. He leads the research company’s analysis of fixed and mobile network services for the Asia-Pacific region. This story was originally published in The Download, the Chorus stakeholder magazine.