If you’re not already using a cloud, you soon will be

People often ask where I see technology going in the short term. Here’s what I tell them:

Two years from now you’ll struggle to find a full range of personal computer software that runs on your desktop computer as opposed to running cloud-style on a remote server. This will be as true for the applications you use to get your work done and the more personal software you use at home.

Buying a software licence will become increasingly rare. Boxed software in retail outlets is already on the way out. Instead you’ll be paying monthly or annual subscriptions.

The cloud will be everywhere you look

While you might keep back-ups on a drive somewhere at home, increasingly your personal data will sit somewhere in the cloud. You’ll be able to get at it whenever you want, from where-ever you happen to be and using whatever device happens to be closest to hand. Networks, including mobile networks, will soon be good enough to make this a breeze, even with large files.

Your collection of cloud services will become as important as the devices you currently use to store information, music, photos, movies and anything else that can be turned into digital data.

You will probably care less about the operating system you use – it will move further into the background with much of the action moving to the web. Prepare to spend more of your time in the browser or simple, focused apps.

If you think business computing has already consumerised, think again. Soon it will be almost impossible to distinguish between the hardware used for work and leisure. And software will go the same way. What's more, the idea of gamification will turn up in business applications.

Instead of swapping from one kind of device to another when you change out of your work clothes after a day on the job, you could simply use a different set of cloud services. Or possibly, in some cases a different account on the same set of services. However, employers are likely to become more worried about device security. They may insist you keep different computers or tablets for work and home.