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Bill Bennett

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Three non-obvious predictions for 2014

December saw a flurry of 2014 technology predictions. I predict the same thing will happen next year.

Forecasts fall into two categories. First, there are those like: Cloud computing company predicts 2014 will be the year of cloud computing. In other words: advertising. Some are clever, most are unsubtle.

The second group of predictions are obvious.

In contrast, here are three things that will happen in 2014. You couldn’t figure them out by drawing a straight line graph though recent data.

The smartwatch is dead

Last week I had coffee with Fred Russo who runs Samsung’s New Zealand PR. While we were talking Fred took a call on his Galaxy Gear watch hooked up to a phone.

On one level it was impressive in a vague science fictiony way. We’re talking nerd nirvana.

And yet that’s all it is. Smartwatches are ugly, clumsy devices. They add little, other than cost, to the phone experience.

Sure, they’re likely to be a hit with the male geek crowd. And yes, Samsung, Sony, Pebble and others will inflict more smartwatches on early adopters over the next 12 months.

It is not a hit product. Smartwatches will not become mass market products like smartphones.

Unless Apple does something great with the format.

Chromebook or something like it will thrive

Apple and Microsoft have left a yawning gap in the market for a low-cost, simple to use laptop. MacBooks are nice but expensive. Too expensive for many users. Meanwhile, the jarring Windows 8 user interface scares off potential Microsoft customers.

And Windows laptops can be too complex for people who prefer simplicity.

Google’s Chromebook can be dirt cheap and is all the computer many users need. The category is new, yet companies like Acer have already squeezed prices below NZ$400. There’s potential to pack more value into Chromebooks in 2014.

The devices could take off.

It’s equally possible tablets could fill the low-end, simple computing void. If that happens Chromebooks will never command a large market share, yet I can see Chromebook thrive.

Desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones matter

Computer makers, particularly the second-tier Asian brands, spent much of 2012 and 2013 playing with alternative formats. For example devices that turn a phone into a desktop PC or something that is both a tablet and a laptop. We saw a few wackier items too.

This was a healthy exploration of the alternative formats and a minor creative flowering. It was also a dead-end. We now know the only formats that matter are desktops, laptops, tablets and phones. Yes there is blurring between these categories. But for now the key, practical  formats are locked in place.

Formats will change when computers get better at understanding human speech. You can see a hint of how this will work with Google Glass. But that’s a device that isn’t ready for mainstream acceptance.

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