Gartner’s latest New Zealand shipment forecasts makes for grim reading if you are in the device business.
The total device market is set to drop by 14.6 percent in 2020 when compared with 2019. That means a total of 360,000 fewer devices.
New Zealand fares worse than the rest of the world which Gartner says will see a 13.6 percent fall in device unit shipments.
There are falls in each category Gartner measures, see the table.
|New Zealand shipments forecast by device type (thousands of units)|
|Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)||439||396|
|Total PC Market||637||585|
|Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility)||538||474|
|Computing Device Market||1,176||1,059|
|Total Device Market||2,500||2,136|
|Due to rounding, some figures may not add up precisely to the totals shown.|
|Thin and light notebooks are listed under premium ultramobiles|
|Tablets and Chromebooks are listed under basic ultramobiles|
|Source: May (2020)|
Mobile phone sales have fallen faster than computing devices. Gartner forecasts 1.08 million units in 2020 compared with 1.36 million units in 2019. That’s a drop of nearly 19 percent.
The analyst company says it expects consumers to extend the life of their mobile phones replacing them on average once every 2.7 years. For more on this see How long should I keep my phone?
Pandemic device impact
Looking at the worldwide numbers, Gartner says the fall could have been so much worse if it were not for pandemic lockdowns. Because millions of people were forced to work or study from home there was an increase on spending on notebooks and tablets.
Gartner says getting on for half of all employees will work remotely for some or all of the time after the pandemic. This compares with around 30 percent of employees beforehand.
This has accelerated the move from desktop PCs to notebooks.
While people have used their phones more during the lockdown, Gartner says lower disposable incomes mean that people will upgrade more slowly than in the past. Gartner sees the average life of a mobile phone increase from 2.5 to 2.7 years.
One other trend spotted by Gartner is the relative lack of interest in 5G handsets. Before the pandemic it was widely thought that the appearance of 5G mobile networks would kick-start a handset upgrade cycle.
Gartner now forecasts that 5G phones will only account for 11 percent of handset shipments this year. In part this is because of the delayed delivery of new handsets. Gartner also says the extra charges imposed on 5G customers is inhibiting sales.